The 2025-2026 Texas wheat season was characterized by drought and heat stress as well as viral and fungal infections across the state, according to a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service specialist.
Sporadic rainfall around planting allowed for good and quick establishment in some areas, while drought conditions prevented germination until February in others, said Brandon Gerrish, AgriLife Extension statewide small grains specialist and assistant professor in the Department of Soil and Crop Sciences. Viral diseases such as wheat streak and triticum mosaic viruses also were prevalent across the region later in the season.
“Over 90% of the harvest is in, with the only remaining acres in the northern Panhandle,” Gerrish said. “There were many more problems than bright spots this year and yields were lower in just about every area of the state, including irrigated acres in the High Plains.”
Only a few bright spots this year
Gerrish said fields around the Dallas-Fort Worth area supported the best non-irrigated wheat in the state this year, along with a small area near Brady that also performed very well.
“Even areas with decent fall precipitation began showing drought symptoms by mid-February and much of the dryland wheat acres in the High Plains and Rolling Plains regions failed by the end of a very hot and dry March, with temperatures reaching 100 degrees in some areas,” he said.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service, the Texas wheat harvest was estimated to be 89% complete on July 5, with only 35% of the crop reported in fair or better condition.
A total of 1.6 million acres is expected to be harvested for grain. That represents only 29% of the 5.5 million acres planted across the state. This is the lowest harvested acreage in Texas since 1.3 million acres in 2022. The latest crop production report forecast Texas wheat production at 45 million bushels, with an average yield of 28 bushels per acre.
Market prices
The USDA Risk Management Agency announced the 2026 harvest price for conventional winter wheat in Texas and Oklahoma at $6.28 per bushel, said Mark Welch, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist-grain marketing in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics. That is up from $5.37 per bushel last year.
Recent wheat markets have been paying $5.20 to $5.90 per bushel. This is a drop from the historic highs over $11 per bushel seen following the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, but up from last year’s June average Texas cash wheat price of $4.44 per bushel. With higher input prices, especially fertilizer and fuel, tight margins are a persistent concern for wheat growers, Welch said.
Wheat conditions varied around the state
High Plains
Drought and heat stress as well as viral infections plagued wheat in the High Plains. Winter conditions were mild followed by a hot and dry spring with some areas of the Panhandle reaching 100 degrees in late March. April and May brought some rainfall, however, the entire High Plains region remained in moderate to exceptional drought.
While irrigation ensured crop survival, many growers expressed disappointing irrigation responses on wheat. Symptoms of wheat streak mosaic and triticum mosaic viruses appeared in March, with farmers reporting a much higher incidence compared to average seasons.
Rolling Plains
Drought greatly reduced yield potential across the region. One exception was near Brady, which managed to remain off the drought monitor and supported some of the best wheat yields seen in a while in that area, Gerrish said.
Widespread rainfall in early April was too late; the damage had already been done. Leaf rust incidence was moderate, mostly occurring in the southern part of the region. Viral diseases such as wheat streak and barley yellow dwarf viruses were also present and caused significant damage in select fields.
Blacklands
The Blacklands region faired significantly better overall with areas surrounding Dallas-Fort Worth supporting some of the best non-irrigated wheat in the state. Rainfall delayed harvest throughout the region, which also resulted in preharvest sprouting and low grain test weights.
Leaf rust pressure in the southern and central parts of the region and widespread Hessian fly infestations caused heavy damage in some fields. Gerrish said the possibility of increased Hessian fly pressure next year should prompt growers to select at least one resistant variety to plant this fall.
South Texas
Drought, high temperatures and high disease pressure left the major wheat producing areas of South Texas in extreme drought conditions most of the season. Warm winter conditions resulted in about 50% chilling hours compared to the five-year average and many winter wheat varieties displayed at least partial vernalization issues as a result.
Leaf rust pressure was significant in irrigated fields, and heavy Hessian fly infestations were also a problem in some areas.
