From the great Texas meteorologist Harold Taft I learned that seven-day forecasts are worth little and a prognostication for the weather a month from now is foolish.  But old-time farmers needed to have something to help them decide when to plant corn and how many acres to gamble on.  For that reason they put some faith in certain signs or what an almanac predicted months in advance.

Some local superstitions have come down to us in memorable rhymes, such as “rain before seven, fair by eleven.” Others are logical deductions from certain signs--such as smoke rising vertically from a chimney, indicating fair weather.

Most are pure superstitions, yet still believed and stoutly defended in certain rural areas. A few are subjects for discussion even in our modern cities.

Even young children know about Groundhog Day, generally observed on February 2 with much hoopla and media coverage.  But there are thousands of people in Missouri and Arkansas who regard February 14 as Groundhog Day, and if it is dark and cloudy enough to prevent the varmint from seeing his shadow, they begin to spade up their garden patches.

In some midwest regions, "goosebone" weather prophets examine the breastbone of a wild goose killed in autumn. If it is thin and rather transparent, that predicts a mild winter; if thick and opaque, a hard winter; if white, much snow; if reddish or red-spotted, cold but little snow.

There are superstitions that a frost will occur six weeks after we hear the first katydid; that tree frogs trilling or a "rain crow" calling predicts rain; that bad weather is coming when we feel twinges of rheumatism or aching corns and bunions. A ring around the moon means a storm is coming, and the number of stars visible inside the ring tells the number of days before it will start.

Other folk beliefs have some justification, such as the idea that sun dogs (colored patches of light to the left or right of the sun) predict a cold spell; that train whistles sound louder and clearer before a rain, and that stormy weather is probable when the sky is mantled with clouds resembling a flock of sheep.

If the crescent of a new moon is horizontal, some old-timers say the next month will be dry because it holds water; if roughly vertical, ‘twill be wet because the water will spill out. Others believe exactly the opposite, arguing that if the moon in “on its back” the month will be rainy and the hunter can hang his rifle and powder horn on its tips; if vertical, the water has been spilled out and he can hunt at will.

It’s too early to apply my favorite weather superstition, taught me by my father.   The Twelve Old Days uses the last six days of this year and the first six of the next to come up with a 12-month prediction for the upcoming year.

Having grown up in the “time it never rained,” the 1950s, I will always remember this:  “All signs fail in dry weather.”

Jerry Lincecum is a retired Austin College professor who now teaches older adults to write their autobiographies and family histories.  Email him at jlincecum@me.com.