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University of North Texas economist says that fewer jobless claims isn’t necessarily an indicator of a strengthening economy
By UNT News Service
Aug 11, 2009

DENTON (UNT), Texas – According to government reports the number of Americans filing first time claims for unemployment benefits fell to 550,000 last week from 588,000 the week before. 

University of North Texas economist Dr. Terry Clower says that the new numbers by themselves don’t indicate economic strengthening. He says that jobless claims have been volatile in recent weeks, and that this week’s decrease could be attributed to a number of factors. 

“It’s possible that more people lost their jobs last week than the report would indicate,” says Clower.  “Many people may just have put off filing for unemployment.  It’s vacation season; people may be out of town and planning to file when they get back next week. 

Clower says that when looking at economic recovery a number of factors need to be considered, and that some of those other indicators continue to be misleading.   

“The retail sector is still showing indicators of weakness, and though the stock market has had a recent surge, I believe that the increases reflect businesses cutting costs rather than bringing in increased revenues,” says Clower. 

Clower says that although economists and consumers hope that the decrease in new jobless claims is the beginning of a trend, indicators show that the labor market will continue to be weak for the remainder of the year, and then start strengthening during the first quarter of 2010. 

Clower is the associate director of UNT’s Center for Economic Development and Research.