NOTE: This report adopts U.S. area, yield, and production forecasts for winter wheat, durum, other spring wheat, barley, and oats released today by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). For other crops, area estimates reflect the June 30 NASS Acreage report, and methods used to project yield are noted on each table. Survey-based production forecasts reported by NASS will be adopted in the August 12 issue of this report.
WHEAT: U.S. wheat supplies for 2009/10 are raised this month
as higher area and yields add 96 million bushels to forecast
production. Feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels
with the larger crop and lower expected prices. Exports are
projected 25 million bushels higher with smaller crops in major
exporting countries expected to reduce supply competition,
particularly for higher quality wheat. The ending stocks projection
is raised 59 million bushels as the higher production forecast
more than offsets expected increases in use. The first 2009/10
by-class wheat supply and demand projections indicate larger
supplies of hard red spring, white, and durum wheat. Despite
higher carryin, lower production reduces supplies of hard red
winter and soft red winter wheat from year-ago levels. The
2009/10 marketing-year average farm price is projected at $4.80
to $5.80 per bushel, down 10 cents on both ends of the range.
This month's 2008/09 changes reflect the latest export data and
June 1 stocks. Exports are increased 5 million bushels and
ending stocks are reduced 2 million bushels. As a result, feed
and residual use is lowered 3 million bushels, but remains the
highest since 2000/01. The 2008/09 marketing-year average farm
price is estimated at a record $6.78 per bushel, down slightly from
last month's projection.
Global wheat supplies for 2009/10 are projected lower this month
as a 1.0-million-ton beginning stocks reduction more than offsets
a 0.4-million-ton production increase. The decline in world
beginning stocks mostly reflects higher 2008/09 exports for EU-
27, Canada, and Russia. World exports for 2008/09 are raised
4.1 million tons to 136.4 million, 18.8 million higher than the
previous record in 2007/08.
World wheat production for 2009/10 is raised as higher output by
the United States and FSU-12 countries more than offset
reductions for Argentina, Canada, and EU-27. Production is
raised 1.0 million tons for Russia and 0.5 million tons each for
Ukraine and Kazakhstan, all on higher indicated area. Production
for Argentina is lowered 1.5 million tons reflecting continued
dryness in central growing areas and reduced prospects for
seeded area. Recent rains in the southeastern growing areas are
expected to boost plantings there partly offsetting area losses
farther north. Production for Canada is also reduced 1.5 million
tons as extended dry cool conditions in western growing areas
delayed germination and crop establishment, reducing both area
and yield prospects. EU-27 production is lowered 1.3 million tons
as poor crop conditions across southern and southeastern Europe
reduce yield prospects for Italy and Romania. Yield prospects are
also lowered for the United Kingdom and harvested area is
lowered for Denmark.
Global wheat imports, exports, and consumption for 2009/10 are
all projected slightly higher this month. World imports are raised
0.8 million tons mostly reflecting increases for Syria, Turkey, and
Yemen. World exports are raised 0.8 million tons with reductions
for Argentina and Canada more than offset by increases for
Ukraine, the United States, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Global
consumption is raised 0.8 million tons with higher projected food
use in a number of Middle Eastern and African countries more
than offsetting lower expected feed use in Canada and Ukraine.
Global ending stocks are projected 1.4 million tons lower mostly
reflecting the reduction in 2008/09 carryout.
COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2009/10 are
projected higher this month with higher expected beginning stocks
and production for corn. Corn production for 2009/10 is projected
at 12.3 billion bushels, up 355 million from last month as higher
estimated area from the June 30 Acreage report boosts
production prospects. Corn supplies are projected at 14.1 million
bushels, up 335 million bushels from 2008/09. Feed and residual
use for 2009/10 is raised 50 million bushels as increased supplies
and lower prices are expected to boost feeding demand. Food,
seed, and industrial use is lowered 35 million bushels reflecting
lower expected use for sweeteners and starch. Exports are raised
50 million bushels as lower prices increase the competitiveness of
U.S. supplies in the world market. Ending stocks are projected at
1.6 million bushels, up 460 million from last month, but down 220
million from 2008/09. The 2009/10 marketing-year average farm
price for corn is projected at $3.35 to $4.15 per bushel, down 55
cents on both ends of the range.
Ending stocks for 2008/09 are raised 170 million bushels as lower
domestic use more than offsets an increase in expected exports.
Food, seed, and industrial use is lowered 120 million bushels with
reductions projected for use in ethanol, sweeteners, and starch.
The decline in corn prices has boosted ethanol producer margins;
however, reduced production of gasoline blends with ethanol in
May and June, based on the most recent weekly data, indicate
lower-than-expected ethanol corn use. Feed and residual use is
lowered 100 million bushels as indicated by the June 1 stocks.
Exports are raised 50 million bushels based on recent increases
in shipments and the high level of outstanding sales for the
2008/09 marketing year. The marketing-year average price is
projected at $3.95 to $4.15 per bushel, down 15 cents on both
ends of the range reflecting sharply lower summer price
prospects.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2009/10 are projected 13.0
million tons higher this month mostly reflecting higher corn
beginning stocks and production in the United States. Global
coarse grain beginning stocks are raised 4.2 million tons with a
5.3-million-ton increase for corn only partly offset by lower
beginning stocks for barley, sorghum, and oats. Global coarse
grain production is projected 8.9 million tons higher with the
increase in U.S. corn production only partly offset by lower corn
production in Russia; lower barley production in Canada, EU-27,
and the United States; and lower oat production in EU-27. Higher
mixed grain and rye production for the EU-27 and barley
production for Russia and Ukraine also add to world coarse grain
supplies.
World coarse grain imports and exports are both projected slightly
higher for 2009/10. Increased U.S. and Ukraine corn exports are
mostly offset by reductions for Russia and Brazil. Global corn
feeding is raised 0.8 million tons with higher feeding in the United
States partly offset by a reduction for Ukraine. Global corn ending
stocks are projected at 139.2 million tons, up 13.7 million from last
month.
RICE: U.S. total rice supplies for 2009/10 are projected at 253.7
million cwt, down 4 percent from last month owing to reductions in
beginning stocks, imports, and production. U.S. rice production is
projected at 211.0 million cwt, 4 percent below last month, but 4
percent above 2008/09. Estimated harvested area at 3.0 million
acres reported in the June 30 Acreage report is 5 percent lower
than last month, but 1 percent above 2008/09. Long-grain
harvested area is lowered 11 percent, and combined medium- and
short-grain harvested area is raised 18 percent. The average all
rice yield for 2009/10 is projected at 7,033 pounds per acre, 1
percent above last month, and 3 percent above 2008/09. Long-
grain rice production is projected at 151.0 million cwt, about 11
percent below last month; while, combined medium- and short-
grain rice production is projected at 60.0 million cwt, nearly 18
percent above last month. Beginning stocks for 2009/10 are
lowered nearly 7 percent to 21.7 million cwt, while imports are
lowered about 5 percent to 21.0 million cwt. The reduction in
imports is all in the combined medium- and short-grain rice class.
Total rice use for 2009/10 is projected at 231.0 million cwt, up
about 1 percent from last month owing entirely to an increase in
the export projection. Exports for 2009/10 are projected at 99.0
million cwt, up 2 percent, and up 1 percent from revised 2008/09.
Exports of combined medium- and short-grain rice are raised 13
percent to 26 million cwt, while exports of long-grain rice are
lowered 1 percent to 73 million. The milled rice export projection
is raised 5 percent, while rough rice exports are lowered 3
percent.
USDA estimated June 1 rice stocks at 56.5 million cwt (combined
rough and milled stocks on a rough-equivalent basis) in the Rice
Stocks report published on June 30. The higher-than-expected
stocks implied lower domestic and residual use during the March
to May period. Consequently, annual domestic and residual use
in 2008/09 is lowered 2 percent to 132.5 million cwt. The export
estimate for 2008/09 is raised 4 percent to 98.0 million cwt. The
volume of exports through the end of June combined with
expected export deliveries during July leads to the boost in the
2008/09 export forecast.
The 2009/10 season-average farm price range is raised $2.75
cents per cwt on each end to $13.25 to $14.25 per cwt compared
to a revised $16.05 per cwt for 2008/09. Smaller domestic
supplies along with stronger-than-expected global prices will lead
to higher U.S. prices in 2009/10. The long-grain season-average
farm price range for 2009/10 is increased $2.50 per cwt on each
end to $12.00 to $13.00 per cwt compared to a revised $14.85 per
cwt in 2008/09. The combined medium- and short-grain farm
price range is increased $4.00 per cwt to $19.50 to $20.50 per cwt
compared to a revised $21.50 per cwt in 2008/09.
Global 2009/10 rice supply and use are little changed from last
month's projections. World production is raised less than 1
percent from last month as small increases for China and Vietnam
more than offset a reduction for the United States. Global exports
are raised 0.5 million tons mostly due to an increase for Burma.
U.S. exports are also increased slightly. The Philippine import
projection is raised 650,000 tons to 2.4 million. Ending stocks are
lowered less than 1 percent from last month to 94.5 million tons.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2009/10 are projected
at 8 million tons, up 1.1 million from last month. Higher soybean
stocks account for most of the increase. Oilseed production is
projected at 96.3 million tons, up 1.8 million tons, with increased
soybean production accounting for most of the change. Soybean
production is projected at 3.26 billion bushels, up 65 million due to
increased harvested area. Harvested area estimated in the June
30 Acreage report is 1.5 million acres above the June projection.
The soybean yield is projected at 42.6 bushels per acre,
unchanged from last month. Increased exports and crush partly
offset increased supplies, leaving projected 2009/10 ending
stocks at 250 million bushels, up 40 million from last month.
Prices for soybeans and soybean products are all reduced this
month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2009/10 is
projected at $8.30 to $10.30 per bushel, down 70 cents on both
ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $255 to
$315 per short ton, down 20 dollars on both ends. Soybean oil
prices are projected at 31 to 35 cents per pound, down 2 cents on
both ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2009/10 is increased 2 million tons
to a record 423.4 million tons. Foreign production is projected up
0.2 million tons to 327.1 million tons. Soybean production is
projected at a record 243.7 million tons, up 2.1 million due mostly
to higher production in the United States. Production is also
raised for Canada based on higher harvested area reported by
Statistics Canada. Increased sunflowerseed production for
Ukraine and the United States is partly offset by a reduction for
EU-27. Rapeseed production is increased for Canada as higher
harvested area is only partly offset by reduced yields. Other
changes include reduced rapeseed production for Ukraine and
EU-27.
U.S. soybean exports for 2008/09 are projected at 1.26 billion
bushels, up 10 million from last month reflecting continued strong
shipments and sales. In addition, higher projections for soybean
meal exports and domestic soybean meal use result in a 5-million
bushel increase in soybean crush to 1.655 billion bushels.
Despite the increase, domestic soybean meal use for 2008/09 is
projected down 8 percent from 2007/08 due to reduced meat
production and increased supplies of alternative protein sources.
Increased soybean exports and crush are offset mainly by
reduced residual use, leaving ending stocks for 2008/09
unchanged at 110 million bushels.
SUGAR: Projected 2009/10 U.S. sugar supply is decreased
100,000 short tons, raw value, from last month. Beginning stocks
are lowered 100,000 tons. Changes in production are offsetting,
with beet sugar increasing and cane sugar decreasing, based
mainly on the June Acreage report and recent yield trends.
Estimated 2008/09 U.S. sugar supply is unchanged from last
month, with offsetting changes in production and imports. Based
on the pace to date and prospects remaining in the fiscal year,
beet sugar production is lowered 110,000 short tons, raw value.
Also, imports from Mexico are increased 150,000 tons while
imports under the tariff rate quota are decreased 40,000 tons.
Sugar use is increased 100,000 tons to reflect the refined portion
of the increase in imports from Mexico.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. meat production
for 2009 is reduced as lower beef output more than offsets higher
pork and poultry production. The beef production forecast is
reduced for 2009 due to lower expected feedlot placements and
slightly lighter average carcass weights. The Cattle report, to be
released on July 24, will provide an indication of breeding herd
retention and the number of cattle outside feedlots. The pork
production forecast is raised due to larger-than-expected second
quarter slaughter and heavier carcass weights. However, lower
June 1 inventories result in a small reduction in the second-half
2009 pork production forecast. The broiler production forecast is
raised as second- and third-quarter output is expected to be
slightly higher.
Meat production for 2010 is raised as higher pork and broiler
production outweigh slightly lower beef production. The recent
Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated a slower-than-expected
decline in farrowing intentions which, coupled with continued
gains in pigs per litter, results in larger supplies of slaughter hogs
in 2010. In addition, lower forecast feed prices compared with last
month supports heavier hog carcass weights. Broiler production
forecasts for 2010 are also raised as lower feed prices are
expected to aid producer returns. Turkey and egg production
forecasts are unchanged from last month.
Turkey export forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are reduced largely
because of expected lower shipments to Mexico. Export forecasts
of other meats are unchanged. The beef import forecast is raised
fractionally for 2009 on stronger second-quarter shipments to
date. Other import forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are unchanged
from last month.
Price forecasts for 2009 are lowered for hogs, generally reflecting
a higher production forecast. Cattle and broiler forecasts are
unchanged. Egg prices in 2009 are forecast lower on softer
demand. For 2010, higher forecast pork production is expected to
weigh on supplies and price forecasts are reduced. Prices for
cattle and broilers are unchanged. Egg price forecasts are
reduced as the current market weakness is expected to carry into
2010.
The milk production forecast is raised fractionally for 2009 as the
reduction in cow numbers is slightly slower than expected. Milk
production for 2010 is unchanged. Imports for 2009 on a skim-
solids basis are forecast lower; the commercial export forecast is
unchanged from last month. Net removals are adjusted for both
higher nonfat dry milk (NDM) sales to the CCC and product
exports under the Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP).
Cheese, butter, and NDM price forecasts are lowered as supplies
are large but whey prices are forecast higher. For 2009 and 2010,
Class III prices are reduced as lower cheese price forecasts more
than offset higher whey prices. The Class IV price forecast is
reduced in line with lower butter and NDM prices in both 2009 and
2010. The all milk price is forecast at $11.85 to $12.15 per cwt for
2009 and $14.85 to $15.85 for 2010.
COTTON: The U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates for
2009/10 show lower beginning stocks offset by lower exports,
leaving ending stocks unchanged from last month at 5.6 million
bales. Planted area is raised marginally, consistent with the June
30 Acreage report; however, harvested area is unchanged, as the
estimate of acres abandoned is raised to reflect conditions to
date. Production is estimated at 13.25 million bales, the same as
last month. Domestic mill use also is unchanged, but exports are
reduced 600,000 bales to 10.2 million due to lower U.S. supplies
and reduced foreign import demand. The forecast range of 48 to
60 cents per pound for the marketing-year average farm price is
the same as last month.
A combination of higher beginning stocks and lower consumption
are raising this month's projected world 2009/10 cotton ending
stocks by about 2 percent. Beginning stocks are raised about
800,000 bales, due to adjustments in the 2008/09 balance sheets
for several countries. World production in 2009/10 is reduced
marginally, due to reductions for Turkey and Uzbekistan. World
consumption also is reduced, as consumption is forecast lower in
Pakistan, China, and Thailand, but higher in India and Syria.
World trade is lowered about 1.0 million bales, due to reduced
import demand by China, Pakistan, and Thailand, partially offset
by an increase for Turkey. Despite the increase in world stocks
from last month, ending stocks are still forecast nearly 7 percent
below the beginning level.
A number of adjustments have been made in the 2008/09 and
earlier estimates. Consumption is reduced in Pakistan beginning
in 2006/07 to more closely reflect official government data.
Consumption in 2008/09 also is reduced in China and Thailand,
but is raised in India and Turkey, to reflect recent data and
analysis. Adjustments based on recent activity are made to the
trade estimates for several countries, including an increase of
600,000 bales in U.S. exports. Ending stocks are raised in
Pakistan, China, and Turkey, but are lowered in the United States,
India, Brazil, and Uzbekistan.
