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Farm/Ranch
Drought losses significant, but agriculture has some bright spots
By Edith A. Chenault, Texas A&M
Feb 14, 2006
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COLLEGE STATION – Losses from the 2005 drought in Texas are mounting in the eastern half of the state, but agriculture still has some bright spots.
Damage to the livestock sector could reach $1 billion by next spring, said Dr. Carl Anderson, professor emeritus with Texas Cooperative Extension. He and Dr. David Anderson, Extension agricultural economist-livestock marketing, estimated the losses from:
- The harvest of only about half of the 2005 hay crop. The lack of rainfall kept many Texas farmers from harvesting second and third cuttings of hay.
- The supplemental feeding of hay and protein to livestock for an extra three to five months.
- Fewer stocker calves in Central Texas, the Rolling Plains and the Panhandle due to a lack of moisture. Stocker calves will be shipped straight to the feedlot at lighter weights.
- Lower market prices for calves this fall.
Ranchers began selling lighter calves and taking lower prices this fall because they could see they did not have enough grazing for the winter, Carl Anderson said.
The ranchers "wanted to get the calves weaned so the cows would be in better condition for the winter," he said.
Ranchers – especially those in the eastern two-thirds of the state – have been hurt by the lack of forage since spring, he said.
"We've had no relief in the way of rainfall this September and October when we normally get our wheat and fall grazing off to a start and get some supplemental grazing during the winter," he said. "We're at the point now that even if it does rain, with the short daylight hours and cool temperatures there will be little winter growth of grass and wheat for grazing until spring."
On the other hand, some parts of Far West Texas had record early spring rains and good summer and fall rains, said Dr. Bruce Carpenter, Extension livestock specialist in Fort Stockton.
The weather station at the district Extension office there reported 20 inches of rain for the year so far, about 33 percent above average.
"We've been dry since October, but we have good standing forage going into the winter," Carpenter said.
The sale of cattle and calves make up about 50 percent of the cash receipts in the state, according to the Texas Agricultural Statistics Service.
"When we're talking about drought damage, we're talking about almost half of all of the cash receipts in Texas agriculture coming from the cow/calf operator," Carl Anderson said.
"Our livestock industry has really become a huge part of our agriculture," he said, adding that the drought losses are serious.
However, cotton farmers are harvesting a record crop – their second in a row, Carl Anderson said. Cotton is the No. 1 cash crop and makes up 9 percent of agricultural cash receipts.
The harvest is complete in the southern half of the state, and from San Angelo northward, about halfway complete. Only about 25 percent has been ginned in that area of the state though, he said, and farmers have run out of tarps to put on the modules still sitting in the fields. The gins are working steadily, he said.
The estimated Texas cotton harvest is about 7.8 million bales, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The 10-year average, which includes record crops in 2004 and 2005, is about 5 million bales.
About 1 million acres of wheat are normally grown in the drought-affected areas, said Dr. Travis Miller, associate head for Extension in the department of soil and crop sciences at Texas A&M University.
Much of this is dry-planted, he said, and recent rains helped to germinate some of it.
"Most of it has not come up, or stands are spotty and moisture is marginal to allow it to grow," Miller said.
Ranchers in East Texas typically plant 750,000 acres to 1 million acres of winter pasture as ryegrass or ryegrass blended with oats, wheat or rye, Miller said. This supplements winter diets for cows and calves, helping reduce winter feed bills.
"Even if we get rain soon, there will be little winter pasture," he said.
Fall and winter rains are also needed to recharge water in the soil for summer crops in Central and South Texas, Miller said.
"If these rains don't come, spring planting season will be much more risky than normal," he said. "With the increased price of fuel, fertilizer and seeds, the risk will be greater than in past years."
Carl Anderson is already estimating that, without rainfall this winter, cotton yields will probably go back to normal next year.
A buildup of sub-soil moisture last year enabled farmers to have the record crop this year.
"As I look at the history of the Texas cotton crop – or any dryland crop – a requirement for a bumper crop is good subsoil moisture" at planting, Carl Anderson said.
Twenty-eight Texas counties – mainly in the eastern and southern portion of the state – have been declared disaster areas due to drought, Miller said. These counties and those counties contiguous to them are eligible for federal disaster relief.
"Over the years, drought is the single most damaging weather event, eclipsing tornadoes and hurricanes," he said.
The effect of agricultural drought often progresses slowly, and is even slower to hit urban consumers, Miller said.
"It hits pretty hard and very quickly in the communities across the state that have a primary source of income from agriculture," he said.
"Ultimately the agricultural drought filters into the economy of the big city in lack of sales of agricultural equipment, trucks, pickups, agricultural chemicals, fertilizer, as well as a short supply of good, fresh vegetables and fruits," he said.
As the drought lingers, various stages of drought control measures will be implemented, including restrictions on outside watering, he said.